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2026 Refund Watch: Analyzing the Real Impact of the OBBBA

We are a few weeks into the 2026 tax season, and the initial data coming out of the IRS confirms what we have been anticipating here at GeneralCents Accounting: refunds are trending upward. The average refund has climbed to $2,476—a roughly $300 increase compared to this time last year. While this 14.2% jump is significant, it hasn't quite hit the $1,000 increase some policymakers originally projected.

However, it is still early days. As we process more returns across Scottsdale, Denver, and Albuquerque, we expect these numbers to fluctuate. The driving force behind this shift is the implementation of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), which introduced several specific provisions designed to lower tax liability for working families and individuals.

Accountant calculating tax refund changes

The Key OBBBA Provisions Boosting Refunds

The new legislation introduced targeted deductions that many of our clients are now utilizing. Here is a breakdown of the primary changes affecting returns this season:

  • Overtime Premium Pay Deduction: If you earn "time-and-a-half" under the Fair Labor Standards Act, that premium portion is now deductible. The cap is set at $12,500 for single filers and $25,000 for married couples filing jointly. This deduction phases out starting at $150,000 MAGI ($300,000 for joint filers).

  • Qualified Tips Deduction: For workers in designated service occupations, up to $25,000 of qualified tips can now be deducted. This follows the same income phase-out rules as the overtime deduction and requires married couples to file jointly to claim it.

  • Auto Loan Interest Deduction: Interest on loans for new, U.S.-assembled vehicles purchased after 2024 for personal use is now deductible up to $10,000. This applies whether you itemize or take the standard deduction. Note that income limits apply here too, with phase-outs beginning at $100,000 for single filers ($200,000 for joint).

  • The Senior Bonus & Enhanced Standard Deduction: The standard deduction has seen a healthy increase to $15,750 for singles and $31,500 for married couples. Additionally, taxpayers aged 65+ receive a $6,000 "Senior Bonus," regardless of whether they itemize. This bonus begins to phase out at $75,000 MAGI ($150,000 joint).

  • Expanded Child Tax Credit: The credit has bumped up to $2,200 per child. Full eligibility remains for joint filers earning up to $400,000 ($200,000 for single/head of household).

  • SALT Cap Adjustment: A major change for our clients in states with higher local taxes is the increase of the State and Local Tax (SALT) deduction limit from $10,000 to $40,000. However, high earners with MAGI over $500,000 will see this cap phase back down.

Manufacturing workers discussing overtime pay

Silent Factors Influencing Your Refund

Beyond the headline-grabbing credits, a few mechanical issues are contributing to the higher refund averages:

  • Withholding Lag: Because many OBBBA cuts were enacted without immediate updates to IRS withholding tables, many taxpayers essentially overpaid throughout the year, resulting in a larger lump sum back now.

  • Inflation Indexing: Significant adjustments to tax brackets to combat "bracket creep" have helped shield income from higher tax rates.

  • Refundable Adoption Credit: A portion of the Adoption Tax Credit (up to $5,000) is now refundable, meaning you can receive it as cash even if your tax liability is zero.

Navigating IRS Challenges

While the refunds are welcome, the administrative side remains complex. The IRS is currently operating with a reduced workforce and a lingering backlog. Returns are being processed, but overall volume is slightly down compared to previous years.

As your BackPocket CFO, John Koloch and the team at GeneralCents Accounting are monitoring these developments daily. Whether you are in Arizona, Colorado, or New Mexico, there is no need to delay filing out of uncertainty. We understand the nuances of the OBBBA and are committed to ensuring every new credit—from the auto loan interest to the senior bonus—is correctly applied to your specific situation.

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